My buddy's dead wrong take on free throws cost me my bracket

Last March I had a $50 bracket pool on the line, final game, one point difference. My buddy Dave told me to trust the free throw shooter with the hot hand, said it was all about momentum. I had the other team winning by 2, but I swapped my pick because he was so sure. The guy missed the front end of a one-and-one with 4 seconds left, other team got the rebound and hit a three. Cost me the pot and Dave didn't even apologize, just said "that's basketball." Haven't taken his advice on anything since, especially not my dental floss picks. Anyone else have a friend whose confidence in their bad takes is way too high?

1 comments

Log in to join the discussion

Log In

1 Comment

clark.faith6d ago

Funny enough, I used to be the same way about "hot hand" stuff in sports. I'd watch a guy drain three in a row and just know he was gonna sink the next one, but then I started tracking my own guesses during March Madness one year and my hit rate was awful, like worse than flipping a coin. Your story is the exact reason I stopped trusting gut feelings over actual numbers, because momentum is just a story we tell ourselves after the shot goes in, not a real thing you can bank on. Dave owes you more than a shrug, but at least you learned the lesson cheaper than some people do, some folks lose way more than fifty bucks on that kind of thinking.

1